The Channel Checkers » 2009 » June

Nike Dominates Among Teens at Shoe Carnival

Casey — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 21:58:55 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Shoe Carnival locations to gauge trends in the sales of retail shoes. We asked the following questions:

What’s currently the best-selling shoe brand for teenage shoppers?
What’s the most requested brand/item that you don’t carry?
Has store traffic increased, decreased, or stayed the same during the past few weeks?
Does there seem to be more or less items on sale this month versus last month?
How much does the average customer spend on shoes?

Nike is the best-selling teenage brand according to 92% of respondents. 8% say it is Sketchers and another 4% report it as Converse and Solanz.
The survey shows that Adidas and Reebok were requested by customers (each cited by 8% of respondents). Another 44% say that no out-of-stock brands are requested at Shoe Carnival.
44% of respondents say that store traffic have increased during the past few weeks. 36% say it has been the same, while 20% say store traffic has decreased.
52% of respondents say that Shoe Carnival has more sales this month compared to last month, while 48% say there is less.
The average shoe shopper spends $66.49 per spree at this store.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Shoe Carnival’s best selling and most requested shoe by teenagers is Nike, according to 92% of respondents. Shoe Carnival seems to have their customers need covered since no out-of-stock brands are requested. Their sales haven’t increased much compared to last month so their business has been fairly constant.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Polaris Brand Remains Strong Despite Modest Business Levels

Casey — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 21:56:48 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various motorcycle dealers to gauge trends in the sales of Polaris Victory brand motorcycles. We asked the following questions:

What is the most popular brand of motorcycles you sell?
What is your view on the Victory brand of motorcycle?
Do you offer any deals or good financing options for Victory motorcycles? Is financing going away because of the economy?
Are you as busy as normal right now? Or is it a good time to buy because business is slow?

Victory was viewed as the most popular brand by 72% of dealers we spoke with. Another 8% thought that Kawasaki was the most popular.
When asked about their view on the Victory brand of motorcycles, there were zero negative responses.
72% of respondents say they are offering good deals on financing. 28% said they are not. 64% of respondents say financing is not going away due to the economy. 36% say it is.
48% say that business is busy as normal. 52% say that now is a good time to buy a motorcycle because business is slow.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Based on the survey, Victory brand motorcycle is the most popular brand motorcycle out at multi-brand dealers with little negative feedback. Business levels look muted with a near even split in those saying business is soft and pricing good and those who claim business levels are normal in June.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Payless Gains from the Trade Down Crowd

Casey — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 21:48:22 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Payless locations to gauge trends in the sales of retail shoes. We asked the following questions:

Are women’s shoes selling better than kids’ shoes?
Are most of your shoe styles new since last year?
Do you anticipate a lot of sale merchandise this season?
Have you noticed an increase in your business due to concerns about the economy?

Women’s shoes are selling better than kids’ shoes for 80% of stores. 20% say they’re not.
Payless is showing a fresh assortment, with 96% of stores saying most of their styles are new since last year. The remainder of 4% says their styles are not new.
84% of stores expect a lot of sale merchandise this summer. 16% of stores don’t expect a lot of sales.
74% of stores have noticed an increase in business due to concerns about the economy, while 36% haven’t notice an increase in business.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Consumers are appear to be trading down to Payless shoe stores which could be helping the footwear retailer. Sales activity looks high however, so higher store volume could be offset by lower prices. Generally though higher traffic at discount stores is a positive for chains like Payless.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Lobster’s Selling Again but Average Check Down a Bit in May at Red Lobster

Casey — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 17:57:09 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Red Lobster locations to gauge trends in the casual dining business. We asked the following questions:

Is this location new? (One year or less)
How often is lobster being ordered compared to last year?
What are the most popular items on the menu right now?
What is the average bill size for a family of two?

100% of respondents said that Red Lobster had been in the locations we contacted for over a year.
Compared to last year, order of lobsters has been the same according to 56% of respondents. 12% of respondents said more consumers has ordered it, while 32% of respondents said that there has been less consumers ordering lobsters.
The Ultimate Feast was the most popular menu item according to 10 respondents or 40% of those surveyed. The Mediterranean- Grilled Lobster and Shrimp was considered the second most popular menu item by 12% of respondents.
The average check size for a family of two is reported to be $42.76.

Conclusion of Channel Check: The results suggest that Red Lobster’s business has been fairly constant. According to the survey, more than 50% of respondents said that compared to last year consumers have been ordering the same amount of lobster. Red Lobster order patterns look steady, but the average check size does appear to be lower than in our previous surveys, suggesting that price cutting is being used to lure in customer. Impact to gross margins could be an issue for Darden in 2Q.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

IHOP Looks Slow, Average Bill Looks Average

Casey — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 17:40:27 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various IHOP locations to gauge trends in the casual dining business. We asked the following questions:

How long is the wait for a table of 2?
What is the average check size for a party of two?
What is the most popular item on the menu?
Are you less busy these days compared to last month because of economy?

72% of respondents said there was on average no wait time for a table of two, while 28% of respondents said that average wait time was between 5-10 minutes.
The average check size for a party of two is reported to be $23.85.
Specialty pancakes was the most popular menu item according to 9 respondents or 36% of those surveyed. Country Omelet comes in second as the most popular menu item according to 2 respondents or 8% of those surveyed.
47% of respondents had felt that their location had been slower compared to last year because of the economy. 28% of respondents said that it has been the same, while 16% of respondents said it has been busier. The responses suggest that the economy have had a toll on the IHOP business.

Conclusion of Channel Check: IHOP locations look to be “slack” a term we use to mean that wait times are almost non-existent and the perception among employees is that business is slower than the year ago period with very few (16%) seeing business as up from a year ago. In a tip to the marketing department the most popular items match IHOP’s advertising campaigns strongly.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Ann Taylor Stores Look to Have Steady, If Unspectacular Business Levels in June

Casey — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 22:22:50 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed Ann Taylor locations to gauge business trends at the teen retailer. We asked the following questions:

On a scale of 1-5 with 5 being best how would you say business is at your store now?
Do you have any excess inventory that will go on sale soon?
Do you believe the weak housing market and economy are hurting sales at your store?
What is the average customer bill?

52% of respondents reported that business was “average” (3) while 48% saw business at their location as “above average” (4). We generally view average responses as slightly negative.
52% of respondents reported that they did have excess inventory that would soon go on sale. These respondents all cited summer dresses or high end summer dresses as being in excess supply. 48% of respondents said they did not hold any excess inventory.
56% of respondents believe that the economy and the problems in the housing market are hurting sales at their location. 44% did not believe those factors were impacting sales. This response rate is higher than what we have seen at broader based retailers such as Target, Walmart, Sears, etc.
The average customer bill was reported as being $95.64 with a range of of responses between $35 on the low end and $250 on the high end.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Ann Taylor stores look to be holding steady with business levels but not necessarily improving dramatically. Surprisingly it looks like summer dresses will be discounted heavily here in June. General impact of the broader economy on Ann Taylor stores appears to be negative. Average bill looks respectable and becomes more interesting when compared to future survey results. Overall business levels look muted and potential discounting could hurt profit margins for Ann Taylor this summer.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Ford Sales Bifurcate with Fusion and F-150 Leading Sales in May

Casey — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 21:43:35 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed Ford dealerships to gauge business trends at the teen retailer. We asked the following questions:

What is the best selling vehicle currently?
Are there any special deals or promotions now?
Do you offer free satellite radio?
Has there been an increase in sales in the past few months?

48% of respondents reported that the Ford Fusion was the best selling model at their dealership right now. 32% reported that the Ford F-150 truck was the top seller.
48% reported special financing or promotional deals at their location. 52% said there were not. The most common offer was 0% financing and cash back.
40% of dealers reported offering free satellite radio packages as part of a car or truck sale. 60% were not offering satellite radio as a freebie.
64% of respondents said that there had not been an increase in sales the past few months, while 36% reported that there had been. This answer set is worse than our March survey where 57% saw sales down in the past few months.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Ford sales appear to be a barbell with sales of fuel efficient cars and non-fuel efficient trucks leading the way. It appears that mid-range performance cars have vanished from the sales arena. Prmotional activity looks light, which suggests that Ford may be protecting prices on its hot selling vehicles effectively. The one negative from this survey is the deterioration of sales from our March survey.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Harley Sales Begin to Waver in May/ June

Casey — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:22:14 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed Harley Davidson dealers. We asked the following questions:

What is the best selling motorcycle model right now?
Are they sold out of any models right now?
How is business compared to this time last year?
Has there been an increase in sales in the past month?

36% of respondents cited some version of the Sportster as the top selling model right now. The 09 FLXH Street Glide was seen as the top seller by 16% and 12% see the Night Train Softtail.
87% of respondents said they were not sold out of any models. 13% cited some models that were out of stock.
52% of respondents say that business is the same as a year ago. 36% say business is worse while 12% say it is better.
57% of respondents said that sales had not increased in the past month. 43% said they had. This mix of responses is a significant deviation from the trend we have seen across many of our covered companies in the past.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Harley dealers continue to see demand focused on their lower end models (from a price point perspective). Inventories appear to be sufficient to match demand. Business appears to be the same or lower according to 88% of respondents. The 57% citing lower sales in the past month should be a concern for investors as it is a sharp deviation in this answer set versus the past few months.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com