The results of our survey were not entirely surprising but did highlight some interesting trends. The “best” phone outside of AT&T stores (AT&T results discussed in detail below) the best selling phone remained the Motorola RAZR (all variants) followed closely by Nokia’s N-Series line with the N-95 and N-73 primarily cited.  Motorola RAZR’s were seen as the best phone by 17% of our survey respondents while the Nokia N-series was favored by 12%.

The best smartphone / PDA device was clearly Research In Motion’s (RIM) Blackberry line.  Blackberry’s were cited as the best smartphone device by 42% of all respondents, including many AT&T store representatives.  Aside from the iPhone the Palm Treo line and the Nokia N-series, the N-95 in particular, were mentioned as best devices for this category was well.  Palm and Nokia were viewed as the top smartphone device by 4% of respondents each.   It appears that Blackberry devices maintain their popularity in spite of the entrance of the iPhone during the summer months while Nokia is a little weaker in this category than they were in our June survey.

The top music phone outside the AT&T network remains the Sony-Ericsson Walkman series which was rated number one by 17% of respondents followed by LG’s Chocolate phones which were viewed as best by 6% of respondents.  In non-U.S. markets the Sony-Ericsson series dominated this survey category.

At AT&T the answer to the “best” phone questions was  the iPhone from Apple.  This was also the case at AT&T stores to the question of which phone was the best for music. On the topic of best smartphone/PDA device the AT&T store reps were mixed. While some did recommend the iPhone again as the best device in this category models from Research In Motion’s Blackberry line were also mentioned frequently.

We will be running a new survey on these categories in a few weeks and hope to highlight changes or new trends in the cell phone space as 2007 moves into 2008.

We called 52 AT&T Wireless stores and asked three simple questions.

1. Do you have iPhones in stock?
2. How Many?
3. Is the iPhone your best selling phone right now?

The responses to the first question was “yes” iPhones were in stock according to 43 of the 52 (roughly 82%) store representatives we talked to. Nine stores claimed to be sold out of the iPhone. The average number of iPhones in stock was 4.5. Only 4 stores had as many as 9 iPhones in stock and most had 3-6 in stock at any one time.

The answers to our third question were more interesting as this time 33 out of 52 store representatives (roughly 63%) said the iPhone was the best selling phone. 19 representatives said it was not the best selling phone at AT&T. One rep cited the Samsung BlackJack SGH-i607 as a better seller than the iPhone (we believe the Blackjack has been on sale with heavy subsidies since before the iPhone was launched) and another said it depended more on what a person needed the phone for. One rep did tell us that his store sold out in 1-2 days of delivery of iPhones at his store, suggesting that it was obviously the best seller there.

We were somewhat surprised by the high availability of the iPhone but more surprised that the response to our question about it being the best selling device. Our data suggests the iPhone is clearly selling well and being moved through retail but it does not seem to be as strong a consumer device as recent consumer tech smashes like the Motorola RAZR and the Nintendo Wii or even the original iPod.

1. Is the retail outlet corporate owned or a franchise location?

2. Can the iPhone be pre-ordered?

3. Is there a waiting list?

We viewed the question on pre-ordering as one that implied the ability to better guarantee an iPhone when released. As reported widely last week, Apple released television ads highlighting that June 29th would be the launch date for the phone.

The results appear to confirm our previous study that demand for the iPhone is strong.

For the follow-up study, we called 100 AT&T Wireless stores - 57 were corporate owned and 43 were franchisee owned. 37% of the stores reported pre-order lists, while 55% of the surveyed stores reported waiting lists. Overall, there was very little difference between the corporate-owned and the franchised stores. The parity between the rates of pre-order lists suggests that corporate missives from AT&T are not altering behavior of the employees at the retail level. We continue to believe that employees are creating pre-order and waiting lists to lock-in iPhone customers and as a result, to lock-in sales commissions for themselves. The violation of corporate policy at corporate owned stores further validates the powerful demand building for the iPhone product in our opinion.

As we understand it, the official AT&T policy is no waiting lists for any phones, yet we have found significant waiting lists at many of the 136 AT&T stores we’ve called. We believe that the waiting lists, in violation of corporate policy, provide a picture into demand for the iPhone. We believe our survey results indicate that demand will be significant and that while great success is already expected for the iPhone, the actual demand may still exceed these expectations.

We are about half way done with our 100 store sample survey. We understand that official policy says no waiting lists. We believe the waiting lists are in existence and happening because of the large number of eager buyers wanting to get a hold of the iPhone when it launches. We will also state that we do not know when the phone will launch but most AT&T Wireless store reps and most of the writing in the news suggests the phone will ship some time in June 2007.

We will post the survey when we complete it. We can tell you the early results show a significant number of stores still telling us that they do have waiting lists for the phones. Not all, but many. We will post on the full suvey when it is completed.

On the first question, the expected arrival date for the iPhone at Cingular stores ranged from June 15th to July generally. Some respondents claimed August and “winter 2007″ as the arrival date for the phone. Apple has cited June 15, but rumors have swirled that this date may be pushed back a bit (we agree and will get to this topic in a bit).

Our second question about wait lists resulted in 64% of stores reporting a waiting list (We called 36 stores for this survey). The remaining 36% said sales were on a “first come first serve” basis. It was apparent to us that stores reps were keeping their own waiting lists as most are compensated on commission basis it makes sense to us that waiting lists would proliferate as the launch date closes in. So it appears that 64% of Cingular reps are industrious capitalists.

The average number of names on each waiting list was 25 people (there are roughly 10,000 Cingular Wireless outlets). We did have one outlier in New York City, which we excluded from our average, that had 1,979 people on its waiting list. Another store said “we cannot give out that figure but the waiting list is running into the thousands”, another store reported that the number of calls for the phone was “indeterminable” as the numbers were massive.

Our take on our quick survey is that demand for the iPhone is probably going to surprise even Apple fanatics in the early days. We expect sell-outs and complaints about lack of availability of the phone. On this point, we have stumbled across some info that leads us to beleive that HonHai is having trouble manufacturing to schedule and is running behind due to some part delays. It appears that the initial 12 million unit run rate will not be available by June 15. Get your iPhone if you can…

The most interesting finding for us was that at Best Buy some respondents were pushing the Insignia MP3 player product line. We had not heard of this brand but discovered that Insignia is the Best Buy white label brand (see story at http://www.gadgetell.com/2006/12/best-buys-insignia-mp3-players/). It occurs to has this has the potential to create a little channel conflict between Best Buy and Apple at some point, but for now the Insignia does not seem to be taking a lot of market share.

Apple TV is now in stores as we write this. It was not available generally when we conducted our survey. The takeway from our survey on Apple TV was that most respondents felt it would be a good product but would serve a niche Apple-centric market.

iPhone was the most interesting survey for us even as the launch date is debated at other web sites and by commentators. We found two key indicators of good demand for the iPhone in our survey. First, Cingular stores are taking names for a waiting list for these phones. In our experience this rarely happens in the cell phone industry. Second, Cingular store representatives are encouraging us to wait for the iPhone and forego buying a new phone today. Again, this is almost unheard of, especially when we consider that most cell phone salespeople are compensated for hitting daily sales quotas - driving them to try and sell phones today, not threee months from now. Apple has publicly targeted 10M iPhone units as its early sales goal. We understand that Apple is having 12M built. We believe that the iPhone will sell out and that unit sales will be over the 12M initial production run that Apple has ordered. We believe that Hon Hai (AKA Foxconn) is the manufacturere for iPhone product.

We’ll keep working to find out.

Just some more food for thought.

Our survey thoug revealed some cracks in this sea of retailing discipline for Apple. We found products listed as “New” 80GB Apple iPods for substantially less than $349 or even $339. Are these approved Apple re-sellers? The first source for cheap 80Gb iPods came from Google base, where $250 and $242 were the going rates for new Apple 80GB iPods. We also found discounted 80Gb iPods at Onsale.com for as low as $308.

We don’t think our web price searching says too much about Apple’s prospects but we do think it shows that pricing in the distribution channel is becoming somewhat disorderly which could lead to more dramatic price cuts in the future on iPod products from Apple.

Our goal at Channel Checkers is to be the source for primary channel data. We leave the analysis to you the reader. Our two preview posts on this survey led to quite a bit of traffic and comments suggesting we are biased in our surveys. We are not dedicated Zune or iPod fans. We are fans of good solid original data that readers can use to draw useful conclusions.

Now to the rest of the survey. On the question of was the Zune selling well or not we got more positive feedback from the channel. 40% of respondents who carried the Zune said that the product was selling well. In many of these cases the respondents clarified that Zune did not sell in as much volume as iPod’s but that meaningful unit sales were occuring for the Zune. At Best Buy’s specifically, 50% of respondents said that the Zune was selling well while 50% said it was not selling well. One Best Buy respondent told us “Yes {we’ve sold alot of Zune’s}, it was also Black Friday so {we} sold alot of electronics products”

iPod’s were recommended for many reasons including flat out better product, iTunes, more accessories, been around longer, etc. When other brands were mentioned price was the most often cited reason for a customer being steered to a non-Apple MP3 player. Creative, Sandisk, Transcend were all recommended as cheaper alternatives. our survey left us wondering - What ever happened to iRiver? The once number 3 MP3 player manufactured has not been mentioned by any respondent in any survey on MP3 players all year.

Our survey results are not a big surprise although we might have expected the Zune to perform a little bit better. It does seem as though Best Buy is selling decent volumes of Zune’s but that other major retailers like Circuit City may be moving far fewer for some reason. It is clear that iPod dominates mind share among those who sell electronics to the public and whether or not one believes that the iPod is the best MP3 player device it will clearly be the most recommended for the forseeable future.

Which MP3 player do you recommend?

Do you sell the Microsoft Zune?

How well is it selling?

Our survey is not complete but the early results are interestng. First, iPod remains the dominant MP3 player, recommended by 70% of our respondents. The Zune was recommended by some who cited its Wi-fi connectivity as an attractive feature. The Zune and iPod 30GB players are priced similarly so price does not seem to offer an advantage to either competitor at the 30GB density.
What is interesting at this stage is that almost 50% of our survey respondents, even those recommending the iPod as the best MP3 player cited price as a negative for the iPod as indicated there were other brands that offered enough functionality to make the lower price worthwhile for a customer. The Creative Zen was recommended as one of the options for a lower priced player, as was the Sandisk Sansa and the Transcend. One respondent from a major U.S. Electronics chain said the Transcend MP3 player was selling the best among the lower priced MP3 players.

Our survey is not complete and we do capture a significant number of international responses where the Zune is not yet shipping. In India our retailer respondents suggested that March 2007 is a target date for the launch in that country. Most retailers reported selling Zune’s but fewer than the number of iPod’s sold.

We will work to complete our survey in the next few days but the early tabulations look like big unit shipments for Apple again as the Christmas selling season progresses.