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In late September and early October, we surveyed 23 Harley dealerships about sales trends, stocking and pricing for Harley motorcycles in the U.S. The survey asked the following questions.

 

 

1. What is the best selling motorcylce right now?

2. Are you sold out of any models currently?

3. How is business compared to this time last year?

4. Has business picked up in the past month?

 

 

 

• 26% of respondents said that either the Street Glide or Electra Glide was the best selling model. 17% said that the Sportster was the best selling line.

• Over 70% of respondents said they were not sold out of any models. The remainder cited 2009 Sportsters specifically, but said they had stock of 2010 Sportster models. The Street Glide was cited as being sold out at one dealer while another cited the FLHR Road King.

• 57% of respondents said that business was the same as a year ago. 26% said business was better than last year. 17% said business was worse than last year.

• 43% of respondents stated that business was improving in the past month, while 57% said that business had not improved. Cash for clunkers was cited as a negative drawing business away in July and August. Anectdotally, one dealer reported being closed for a week on a temporary basis in September.

 

 

Conclusion of Channel Check: Harley dealers appear to be reporting stable business conditions across the board with some signs of improvement offset by a general report of flat sales compared to last year and to the previous few months.

 

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

 

Over the past week, we surveyed 23 Ford dealerships across the United States to gauge trends in the sales of cars and trucks. We asked the following questions:

 

1. What is the best selling vehicle right now?

2. Are you offering any deals right now?

3. Do you offer XM radio for free?

4. Has there been an increase in business in the last few months?

 

• 20% of respondents reported that the Ford Fusion and the Ford F-150 was the best selling model at their dealership right now. 17% reported that the Ford Focus was the top seller. 13% said Ford Mustang while 9% of respondents said Ford F-350 was the best selling vehicle.

• 70% reported special deals at their location. 26% said there were not.

• 74% of dealers reported offering free XM radio while 26% said they were not.

• 39% of respondents said that there had not been an increase in business the past few months, while 30% reported that there had been. 26% said it has been the same.

 

Conclusion of Channel Check: Based on the survey, Ford dealership’s business seems to be slower compared to the last few months, despite the special deals and free XM radio they have been offering to their customers. The barbell phenomenon with sales continues as trucks one end and small, low cast, fuel efficient cars leads sales at the other end. We do not know gross margin contributions but we suspect Ford would like to sell mid-priced feature cars like the Mustang in greater quantities moving forward.

 

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

 

Over the past week, we surveyed various motorcycle dealers to gauge trends in the sales of Polaris Victory brand motorcycles. We asked the following questions:

1. What is the most popular brand of motorcycles you sell?

2. What is your view on the Victory brand of motorcycle?

3. Do you offer any deals or good financing options for Victory motorcycles? Is financing going away because of the economy?

4. Are you as busy as normal right now? Or is it a good time to buy because business is slow?

• Victory was viewed as the most popular brand by 72% of dealers we spoke with. Another 8% thought that Kawasaki was the most popular.

• When asked about their view on the Victory brand of motorcycles, there were zero negative responses.

• 72% of respondents say they are offering good deals on financing. 28% said they are not. 64% of respondents say financing is not going away due to the economy. 36% say it is.

• 48% say that business is busy as normal. 52% say that now is a good time to buy a motorcycle because business is slow.

   

Conclusion of Channel Check: Based on the survey, Victory brand motorcycle is the most popular brand motorcycle out at multi-brand dealers with little negative feedback. Business levels look muted with a near even split in those saying business is soft and pricing good and those who claim business levels are normal in June.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Over the past week, we surveyed Ford dealerships to gauge business trends at the teen retailer. We asked the following questions:

1. What is the best selling vehicle currently?

2. Are there any special deals or promotions now?

3. Do you offer free satellite radio?

4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past few months?

• 48% of respondents reported that the Ford Fusion was the best selling model at their dealership right now. 32% reported that the Ford F-150 truck was the top seller.

• 48% reported special financing or promotional deals at their location. 52% said there were not. The most common offer was 0% financing and cash back.

• 40% of dealers reported offering free satellite radio packages as part of a car or truck sale. 60% were not offering satellite radio as a freebie.

• 64% of respondents said that there had not been an increase in sales the past few months, while 36% reported that there had been. This answer set is worse than our March survey where 57% saw sales down in the past few months.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Ford sales appear to be a barbell with sales of fuel efficient cars and non-fuel efficient trucks leading the way. It appears that mid-range performance cars have vanished from the sales arena. Prmotional activity looks light, which suggests that Ford may be protecting prices on its hot selling vehicles effectively. The one negative from this survey is the deterioration of sales from our March survey.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Over the past week, we surveyed Harley Davidson dealers. We asked the following questions:

 

1. What is the best selling motorcycle model right now?

2. Are they sold out of any models right now?

3. How is business compared to this time last year?

4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past month?

 

• 36% of respondents cited some version of the Sportster as the top selling model right now. The 09 FLXH Street Glide was seen as the top seller by 16% and 12% see the Night Train Softtail.

• 87% of respondents said they were not sold out of any models. 13% cited some models that were out of stock.

• 52% of respondents say that business is the same as a year ago. 36% say business is worse while 12% say it is better.

• 57% of respondents said that sales had not increased in the past month. 43% said they had. This mix of responses is a significant deviation from the trend we have seen across many of our covered companies in the past.

   

Conclusion of Channel Check: Harley dealers continue to see demand focused on their lower end models (from a price point perspective). Inventories appear to be sufficient to match demand. Business appears to be the same or lower according to 88% of respondents. The 57% citing lower sales in the past month should be a concern for investors as it is a sharp deviation in this answer set versus the past few months.

 

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Over the past week, The Channel Checkers surveyed 30 Harley Davidson dealers across the United States to track sales trends of Harley Davidson motorcycles. We asked the following questions:

1. What bike model sell the most right now?

2. Are you sold out of any models right now?

3. How are business levels compared to this time last year?

4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past month?

 

• The Harley Sportster XR 1200 was cited as the best selling model by 57% of respondents. The Dyna series was seen as the top seller by 13% of respondents.

• 87% of respondents said they were not sold out of any models. 13% said they were sold out of some models and cited the Dyna Rocker C as one model that was sold out.

• 43% of respondents believed that business was worse in early April compared to April of last year. 30% saw business levels as the same as last year, while 27% believed that business was better than last year.

• Despite the negative sentiment on business compared to this time last year, 57% of respondents did say business had increased in the past month. 43% did not believe that business had increased in the last four weeks.

 

Conclusion of Channel Check: The absolute results for Harley appear to be generally negative. However, the data reads less poorly than in recent surveys. The 57% who see business increasing in the past month is the best reading for this question in the past few months. The low priced Sportster continues to be the top selling model. Potentially lower gross margins tied to the Sportster could a downside to this statistic.

 

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Over the past week, we surveyed dealers that sell Polaris Victory brand motorcylces and Polaris brand ATV’s. Many of these dealers sell multiple brands, with the exception of Harley. The survey’s intent is to guage general motorcycle sales trends and attempt to get at Polaris Victory demand specifically. We asked the following questions:

1. What is the most popular brand of motorcycle you sell?

2. What is your view of the Victory Brand of motorcycle?

3. Do you offer any deals or good financing options on Victory motorcycles?

4. Is financing going away because of the economy?

5. Are you as busy as normal, or is now a good time to buy because business is slow?

 

• Polaris was cited as the most popular brand at 57% of dealers we spoke with. 17% thought that Kymco was the most popular while another 17% cited Yamaha as the most popular.

• The reviews of Polaris bikes were generally focused high quality, strong sell through and popularity.

• 60% of respondents say they are offering good deals on financing. 40% say they are not.

• 70% of respondents say financing is not going away due to the economy. 30% say it is.

• 67% say that now is a good time to buy a motorcycle because is slow. 33% say that business is normal and the deals are not extra good.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Polaris brand motorcycles appear to be strong on the brand front compared to other brands carried at motorcycle dealers (excepting Harley Davidson Dealers). The negative elements of the report revolve around the 40% saying that there are not good financing options and the 67% who say that business is slow and therefore now is a good time to buy a Polaris (or any other brand) motorcycle.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Over the past week, The Channel Checkers surveyed 30 Ford dealerships across the United States to track sales of cars and trucks in real-time. We asked dealers the following questions:

1. What is the best promotional deal right now?

2. Are you selling more/less/same number of cars and trucks as last month?

3. What is the best selling model?

4. Can I get financing for that model?

• Deals on new cars and trucks were widespread at the Ford dealers we contracted in this survey. Deals ranged from 0% financing to up to $4,000 cash back at two dealers. 37% of dealers were offering cash back from $1,500 to $4,000. 20% were offering 0% financing ranging from 48-60 months.

• 53% of respondents reported selling fewer cars than in the previous month, while 37% reported selling more. 10% reported sales were the same as the previous month.

• The Ford Focus was the top selling vehicle according to 33% of respondents. The Ford F-150 was said to be the top selling vehicle according to 20% of respondents. 13% of respondents each saw the Ford Mustang and the Ford Fusion as the top selling vehicles.

• Regardless of the top selling model at a particular dealership 97% of respondents reported that financing was available. 3% of respondents said that financing was not available.

Conclusion of Channel Check: While monthly sales trends are negative for Ford, the rate of negative respondents was less than we might have expected. Sales of the Ford F-150 appear strong and could be a positive sign for Ford as these carry higher profit margins and reflect the falling price of gasoline in the U.S.. Strong sales of the Mustang also suggest some positive trends for gross margins for Ford in coming months. The wide availability of financing appears to be a positive.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

While high oil has been well documented and the impacts on truck sales focused on because of their profit contributions to the auto manufacturers, we believe a trend has been missed.The Channel Checkers has conducted some surveys on Toyota dealerships in 2008. Camry’s and Corolla’s have been the top sellers in the the first five. Fuel efficient cars to be sure and the first step away from trucks and SUV’s. However for the first time in September we found that the Prius Hybrid is the top seller according to 30% of dealers we spoke with.

“Toyota dealerships across the U.S. reported that the Prius is their best-selling vehicle, according to The Channel Checkers latest poll. The hybrid vehicle was a best-seller for 30% of dealerships surveyed. The Camry was the next highest seller (27%), followed by the Corolla (18%). Forty-two percent of dealerships are offering special deals on trucks, given the falloff in sales due to high gas prices.

The move to mass purchasing of hybrid is a dramatic shift in u.s. auto buyers preferences. The Channel Checkers will continue to track this trend, but we see the shift as being a 12-month cycle of “no trucks” - “small cars” - “hybrids/electrics / CNG’s”.  We believe that the final three months of 2008 could be the phase for dramatic adoption of hybrid’s and other alternative fuel vehicles.