The Channel Checkers » Retail

True Religion Brand Strong, Overall Denim Market Looks Less Robust Then General Retail

Casey — Wed, 05 May 2010 22:08:45 +0000

In April, we surveyed 22 department stores and jean stores to survey the store employees about sales trends, top selling brands and challenges in the high end denim market. The survey asked the following questions.

How well are high end jeans selling right now?
What brand of jeans would you NOT recommend, why?
What is the best selling brand of high end jeans?
What is your opinion of True Religion jeans?

36% of respondents said that sales of high end denim jeans was “above average” in April. 14% said sales were below average and another 32% said sales were simply average, a response we view as a negative trend point.
Levi’s and Lee’s were cited as brands that the store employees we spoke with would not recommend. These brands were cited as being “plain”, not having enough fit options and store employees noted that other brands were simply superior to these two main line brands.
7 for All Mankind was seen as the top selling brand of jeans by 27% of respondents. 18% saw True Religion as the top selling brand.
23% of respondents saw True Religion jeans as being too expensive on the negative side while many others talked up the brands durability, high fashion image and fit options.

Conclusion of Channel Check: True Religion jeans were recommended well in our survey as they have been in many of our efforts in the high end denim space. The one element of potential concern is that overall the perception of high end jean sales is lagging the broader retail space we cover. Additionally the concern on price of True Religion jeans suggests the competing brands may be offering similar value at lower price points in the department store sales channel.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Kohl’s Working Off Inventory, Economy Impacting Business Still

Casey — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:58:21 +0000

In late September and early October, we surveyed 20 Kohls locations and asked about the business activity level, inventories and best selling items. The survey asked the following questions.

How well is business today at your store?
Do you have excess inventory of any product or brand that will go on discount soon?
Do you think the weak housing market and economy are hurting business at your store?
What is the top selling brand of women’s clothing at your store?

37% of respondents described business at their store as “above average”. 63% saw business as “average”. 10% saw business as ”below average”.
90% of respondents cited having some excess inventory, although the bulk of these cited summer and seasonal items.
74% of respondents do believe that the economy and weak housing market are negatively impacting sales at their store. 11% said that the housing market and weak economy are not hurting sales. 15% were unsure of the impact of the broader economy or housing market.
Sonoma and Apartment 9 were seen as the top selling women’s brand by 25% of respondents each.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Sales trend look mildly positive at Kohls. Excess inventory results are high by historical standards across our retail surveys. Concern over the economy and weak housing market are higher than expected. Top selling brands such as Apartment 9 are consistently near the top of Kohls sales of women’s apparel.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Lululemon Store Trends Look Solid in Past Few Weeks

Casey — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 19:34:18 +0000

Earlier this month we surveyed several Lululemon Athletica locations across the US to gauge trends in performance. We asked the following questions:

How much does the average customer spend per visit?
What % of customers are repeat customers?
What is the top selling item right now?
Do you have trouble keeping the most popular items in stock?

77% of respondents said the average customer spend between $50 and $150 dollars. We believe the average purchase is right around $100 per customer. 12% said customers spend less than $50 on average, while 8% said they spend over $150 per visit.
31% of respondents report that around ¼ of all customers are repeat customers. The remaining 69% report that half or more of customers are repeat buyers of Lululemon clothing.
Tank tops and shirts for women are the best selling item according to 23% of respondents. 19% report that pants are the top selling item.
77% of respondents say that they have no trouble keeping top selling items in stock. 15% report that they do have some challenges in keeping popular items in stock. While a small number, this small stock-out problem seems positive in the current retail environment.

Conclusion of the Channel Checkers: Lululemon appears to be maintaining strong store fundamentals including solid average tickets for each customer and strong repeat buyer business. Top items are not in short supply but our report does suggest some tightness for top items may be beginning to appear suggesting demand may be improving for Lululemon clothing.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Abercrombie Business Ticks up in July

Casey — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:16:12 +0000

In July we have asked 29 different Abercrombie and Fitch locations several questions in order to gauge sales trends. Here are the questions that we asked.

Has this location been open for more than one year?
Which of the following ‘Key Looks’(Women’s) categories is the most popular this spring?
Which of the following Women’s products people have been buying the most of?
Are there enough of the most popular item in-stock right now?
Will it be hard to get more of the most popular product if they need to get more for the holiday season?
Is business increasing / decreasing / flat since last month?

All of the respondents said that the location was open for more than a year.
Knit Tanks, Lexi, and Dresses were all stated to be the top ‘Key Looks’ by 10% of the respondents.
28% of the respondents reported that the Emma Low Rise Boot Jean was the top selling women’s product, while 24% of the respondents said that the Margaret top was the top selling women product.
All of the respondents reported that there is enough of the most popular item in stock now.
17% of the respondents reported that there would be difficulty getting the most popular product if they needed it during the holiday season. 83% said that there would be no difficulty getting the items during the holiday season.
45% of the respondents reported that business is increasing since last month, with 31% reporting no change in business in the last month, and 24% of the respondents reporting a loss in business the last month.

Conclusion of Channel Check: The survey suggests that there was not a large increase in sales during the last month. There also does not seem to be a dominant new women’s product or a dominant women’s ‘Key Look’ out right now. The stocks of their most popular items are full, furthering the point that there is not a large craze for a clothing item at this point. However, during the holiday season, there could be difficulty getting the most popular product if they needed it. Overall Abercrombie looks to be seeing a small increase in business, with no new items driving sales by itself.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Target On Track for Solid July

Casey — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:43:45 +0000

This month we surveyed Target stores around the US to gauge trends in performance. We asked the following questions:

On a Scale of 1-5(1 being the worst and 5 being the best) how well would you say business is at your store?
Do you have excess inventory of any particular product or brand the will go on discount soon?
Do you believe that the weak housing and economy is hurting business at your store?
What is the top selling brand of women’s clothes right now?

43% of respondents replied business was below average. 47% of respondents replied business was average. 42% of respondents replied business was above average. 8% of respondents replied business was very strong.
44% of respondents replied they have excess inventory and it will go on sale. 44% of respondents replied they have no excess inventory.
53% of respondents replied the weak housing market and economy is not affecting business. 28% of respondents replied the weak housing market and economy is affecting business.
39% of respondents replied that Merona is the most popular women’s clothing brand right now. 33% of respondents replied that Mossimo is the most popular women’s clothing brand right now. 6% of respondents replied that Lucky Brand Collection is the most popular women’s clothing brand right now.

Conclusion of the Channel Checkers: For Target business is doing great right now. Most targets are doing average or above average right now in sales. Target has some excess inventory but should not affect business to much. Target is not being hurt as much as other retailers by the weak housing market and economy. The most popular women’s clothing right now is Merona with Mossimo very close behind. Target is doing well right now during this weak economy.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Under Armour Seen as Best for Comfort When Working Out

Casey — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:14:58 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Dicks Sporting Goods stores and Big 5 locations to gauge trends in the sales of work out clothes. We asked the following questions:

What is the most comfortable brand of work out clothes you sell?
Why?
Do you sell Under Armour (if not mentioned in Q1 or Q2)?

63% of respondents said that Under Armour was the most comfortable brand of work out gear. 22% said Nike. Champion, North Face, Reebok, Life is Good were brands also mentioned.
Comfort and “drawing sweat away from the body” were the primary attributes cited about Under Armour.
100% of locations claimed to have had sold Under Armour work out gears.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Based on the survey, Under Armour seems to be a popular choice for consumers in terms of work out clothes. Its comfort and dry fit material beat their competing brands such as Nike, Champion, and Reebok. Overall, Under Armour is a demanding preference for work out gears.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Sears Sales Losing Lustre in July? Inventories Look Well Managed

Casey — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:03:49 +0000

Over the past few weeks we surveyed Sears stores around the US to gauge trends in performance. We asked the following questions:

Are there any sales going on right now? Any sales coming up in the next few weeks?
How busy was your store last month compared to the last few months? Same month last year?
Which product categories are selling the best? Which are selling the worst?
What is the average bill for a customer at your store?
Do you have any excess inventory right now?

72% of the respondents replied there was a sale going on right now and another one in a few weeks. 11% replied there were no sales going on right now and none upcoming in a few weeks. 11% replied there was no sale right now but were going to have one in a few weeks. 6% of respondents replied there was a sale going on right now but no new sale in a few weeks.
28% of the respondents replied last month was busier then the last few months. 33% of the respondents replied last month was busier then the last few months but slower the same month last year. 6% of respondents relied last month slower then the last few months but busier then the same month last year. 6% of respondents replied last month was slower the last few months. 28% of respondents replied last month was the same as the previous months as well as the same last year.
33% replied appliances as the best selling product in the store, while 22% of respondents replied appliances as the worst selling product in the store. 28% replied apparel as the best selling product in the store, while 11% of respondents replied apparel as the worst selling product in the store. 11% replied electronics as the best selling product in the store, while 17% of respondents replied electronics the worst selling product in the store.
28% of respondents replied the average bill was above $200. 11% of respondents replied the average bill was between $150-$199. 22% of respondents replied the average bill was between $ 100-$149. 33% of respondents replied the average bill was below $99.
44% of respondents replied yes they have excess inventory. 56% of respondents replied no they don’t have excess inventory.

Conclusion of the Channel Checkers: For Sears business has either slowed down over the last few months or stayed the same as well for last year. The majority of Sears are having a sale right now or one in the next few weeks. The best-selling product in the store were appliances as well as the worst selling products replied respondents. The average bill for sears customers was roughly $150 when averaging the top bill and bottom bill. More then half of the respondents do not report any excess inventory.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Kohl’s Business Trending Stronger in July

Casey — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 18:38:40 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Kohl locations to track sales of and business levels in July. We asked the following questions:

On a scale of 1-5 (1 being worst and 5 being best) how well would you say business is at your store?
Do you have excess inventory of any particular product or brand that will go on discount soon?
Do you believe that the weak housing market and economy are hurting business at your store?
What is the top selling brand of women’s clothing right now?

48% of respondents said business was “above average”, 44% said business was average while 4% said business was “very strong”. Another 4% said business was below average.
59% of respondents said they did have excess inventory that would be put on sale soon. 41% of respondents said they did not have any excess inventory.
44% of respondents thought housing and economic issues were hurting sales. 30% said no while 26% said they were not sure.
Croft & Barrow was seen as the top selling brand of women’s clothing according to 15% of respondents. 11% said Sonoma was the top brand. 7% said Elle and Apt. 9 as the top selling brand.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Business looks strong at Kohl’s in July with 48% reporting business as above average and only 4% saying it was below average. Inventory is creeping into a potentially dangerous level and could impact margins in 3Q. Weak economic trends appear to be a factor for Kohl’s but not overwhelmingly.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Macy’s Business Up in July, Inventories Manageable for Now

Casey — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 18:37:32 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed various Macy stores to track sales and business levels in July. We asked the following questions:

How is business this year?
Do you have any excess inventory?
Do you think the economy is affecting business?
What is the most popular clothing brand?

46% reported business levels as “above average, 32% reported business levels as “average”, 18% reported business as “below average”, and 4% reported business as “very strong”.
57% of respondents said that there is excess inventory at Macy’s while 43% said there is no excess inventory.
57% of respondents do believe that the economic crisis is hurting business at Macy’s. 25% do not believe that the economic crisis is hurting business while 18% said that they were not sure.
INC was the top clothing brand according to 14% of respondents, 14% also saw Calvin Klein as the top brand while 11% saw Jones New York and BCBGMAXAZRIA as the top selling woman’s brand.

Conclusion of Channel Check: Business levels this year look good as a net of 32% more believe business is above average (Above Average responses – below average responses). Macy’s store workers seem to believe that the economy continues to impact business. Inventory looks to be up, but compared to our history of channel data this number is not a strong red flag for Macy’s yet.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com

Under Armour Does Well With Runners

Casey — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:53:23 +0000

Over the past week, we surveyed Dicks Sporting Goods locations to gauge trends of Under Armour products for runners specifically. We asked the following questions:

What is the best clothing line you have for runners?
What is the best shoe for running?
What running shoes are on sale? Brand/Model?

72% of respondents said that Under Armour was the best clothing line they had for runners. 20% of respondents said Nike. 8% cited Reebok.
Under Armour was considered to be the best shoes for running according to 32% of respondents. Nike comes in second as the best running shoes with 28% of respondents. 24% cited Asics.
44% of respondents stated that Nike shoes were on sale. 32% said Under Armour. 20% said that all running shoes were on sale.

Conclusion: Based on the survey, results suggest that Under Armour products are most recommended for runners. More than50% answered that Under Armour was the best clothing for runners. When it came down to shoes, Under Armour topped their two competing brands, Nike and Asics with 32% of respondents choosing Under Armour. Overall, Under Armour appears to be performing well in the running segment.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or jason@thechannelcheckers.com