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	<title>The Channel Checkers &#187; WiMax</title>
	<link>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com</link>
	<description>Institutionalized, large scale channel checks for fundamental stock research</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2008 17:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Nextwave Spectrum Value In Question</title>
		<link>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2008/04/nextwave-spectrum-value-in-question/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2008/04/nextwave-spectrum-value-in-question/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Apr 2008 05:18:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Casey</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[WiMax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2008/04/nextwave-spectrum-value-in-question/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Wednesday, April 23rd NextWave announced it would sell off its spectrum assets to top bidders.  Nextwave holds WCS, AWS and EBS/BRS spectrum assets. Estimates for Nextwave&#8217;s spectrum on the open market total close to $900 million according to some market analysts.  We believe that the company&#8217;s total spectrum holdings are likely not [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Wednesday, April 23rd NextWave announced it would sell off its spectrum assets to top bidders.  Nextwave holds WCS, AWS and EBS/BRS spectrum assets. Estimates for Nextwave&#8217;s spectrum on the open market total close to $900 million according to some market analysts.  <strong>We believe that the company&#8217;s total spectrum holdings are likely not worth more than $450 million.</strong>  We question why deep pocketed parties would not have bought Nextwave outright, the company&#8217;s market capitalization stands at roughly <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wave" target="_blank">$600 million as of Friday April 25th,</a>  as opposed to paying premium prices for bits and pieces of multi-frequency bandwidth across the U.S.</p>
<p>There is an estimated value of roughly $400 million for NextWave&#8217;s EBS/BRS spectrum.  <strong>The value ranges on a MHZ POP basis is $0.40-$0.50 per MHZ POP.</strong>  We see the value of NextWave&#8217;s EBS/BRS holdings as being worth far less after lengthy research on the specifics of NextWave&#8217;s holdings.  Our primary concern about the company&#8217;s EBS/ BRS holdings is that  NextWave leases substantial portions of its claimed EBS/BRS coverage.  We found this in NextWave&#8217;s 10-K:</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify" align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">Our        AWS, WCS and BRS spectrum is held directly through FCC licenses. Our EBS        spectrum has been leased on a long-term basis from current license        holders.</font></p>
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<p align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">We        lease EBS spectrum from multiple parties in the greater New York, New York        metropolitan area, including geographic areas in New York, New Jersey and        Connecticut. These leases give us access to different amounts of spectrum        in specific parts of the market area. The terms of these leases range from        20 to up to 60 years when their renewal options are      included.</font></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify" align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">We        lease EBS spectrum from The Orange Catholic Foundation in the Los Angeles,        California (Orange County) area. This lease has an initial 10 year term        and contains five renewal options for 10 years each to extend the term of        the lease.</font></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify" align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">We        lease EBS spectrum from The University of California in the San Francisco,        California area. The lease has an initial 10 year term and contains 2        renewal options for 10 years each to extend the term of the        lease.</font></p>
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<p align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">We        lease EBS spectrum from Bradley University in the Peoria, Illinois area.        This lease has an initial 10 year term and contains two renewal options        for 10 years each to extend the term of the    lease.</font></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify" align="left"><font style="display: inline; font-size: 10pt; font-family: times new roman">We        sublease EBS spectrum from the North American Catholic Educational        Programming Foundation in the Mobile, Alabama area. This sublease has an        initial 29 year term and no renewal options to extend the term of the        subleas</font></p>
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<p><span style="display: block">In addition to the EBS leases we also found that the company in 2002 leased BRS spectrum from the <a href="http://www.wirelessweek.com/article.aspx?id=108308" target="_blank">Archdiocese of New York&#8217;s Department of Education</a><strong>.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="display: block"></span><span style="display: block"><strong> Nextwave is currently obligated to roughly $1,000,000 per year in future EBS license lease payments. It cost Nextwave about $20,000,000 in 2007 to acquire additional California EBS license leases.</strong> Nextwave&#8217;s 10-Q &amp; 10-Q/A financial filings with the Securities &amp; Exchange commission reveal their overall spectrum lease expenses &amp; liabilities; Nextwave does not specifically segregate out their EBS leases.   In exchange for being able to commercially lease the surplus EBS bandwidth licensed by an educational institution, Nextwave gives hints of how they structure their leases financially; It appears that Nextwave probably: - pays initial fees to the licensee, - pays the capital equipment costs in order to use the FCC EBS license (for both FCC EBS licensee &amp; Nextwave), - makes installment payments to educational institution, possibly including a percentage of Nextwave&#8217;s revenues from the use of the EBS license - they are also complicated by how they finance them with corporate notes, and how they account for their them in their financials to comply with IRS &amp; FCC regulations, and lease terms.  There are valuation estimates for NextWave&#8217;s EBS/BRS spectrum of $0.40-$0.50/MHZ POP.<em> Given the company&#8217;s lack of ownership of spectrum in major metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco</em>.  NextWave&#8217;s BRS spectrum is not national and it would seem hard to believe that it could yield greater value than the more substantial network operated by Sprint and Clearwire in the BRS frequencies.  It would appear that somewhere between <strong>$0.10-$0.15 per MHZ/POP</strong> would be a better estimate for the value of Nextwave&#8217;s BRS  holdings than the ranges of<strong> $0.40-$0.50 we have seen published.</strong> </span></p>
<p>We find that many of NextWave&#8217;s AWS spectrum holdings reside in primarily low density population areas.  In the AWS markets, we believe that a generous valuation for NextWave&#8217;s spectrum lies somewhere between $0.20- $0.25/MHZ POP, which is a relatively consistent metric with the average of the small market bids in the 2006 AWS auction as cited by Jupiter Research (<a href="http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/armbrust/archives/2006/08/aws_auction_win.html" target="_blank">http://weblogs.jupiterresearch<wbr></wbr>.com/analysts/armbrust/archives<wbr></wbr>/2006/08/aws_auction_win.html</a>).</p>
<p>Nextwave&#8217;s WCS holdings may hold some value to independent bidders but again we see challenges in the fact that the WCS holdings are not national and would require essentially constructing many transaction to find buyers for each specific license. In a lengthy license by license sales process we cannot help but imagine that the buyers hold the advantage and would work Nextwave down on valution for each piece. We believe that the WCS spectrum should valued at a discount compared to comparables.</p>
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		<title>New Jersey Next On ClearWire&#8217;s List in 2008</title>
		<link>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/11/new-jersey-next-on-clearwires-list/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/11/new-jersey-next-on-clearwires-list/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Nov 2007 05:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Casey</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[WiMax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/11/new-jersey-next-on-clearwires-list/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Clearwire, the leading Wi-max broadband internet data and voice provider appears to be targeting new expansion into New Jersey according to our channel checks with Glasboro and Jersey City specific locales we have heard about where service would be turned on by mid-2008.  New Jersey and other high density states make sense for offerings [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clearwire, the leading Wi-max broadband internet data and voice provider appears to be targeting new expansion into New Jersey according to our channel checks with Glasboro and Jersey City specific locales we have heard about where service would be turned on by mid-2008.  New Jersey and other high density states make sense for offerings of high speed data and VoIPservices.</p>
<p>We also believe that Clearwire is now active in the Dallas market where there are a substantial number of local Wi-Max and pre-Wi-Max wireless data and voice providers.</p>
<p>Many investors appear concerned about expansion plans and growth for Clearwire since the end of its agreement with Sprint Nextel and the loss of funding and resources from Sprint.  We believe that Clearwire appears to be continuing its expansion across the U.S.and believe that Clearwire will have access to the capital it needs to continue to grow its business.</p>
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		<title>Clearwire Expansion Plans Progressing Quickly, Solid Sub Growth Should Follow.</title>
		<link>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/06/clearwire-expansion-plans-running-progressing-quickly-solid-sub-growth-should-follow/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/06/clearwire-expansion-plans-running-progressing-quickly-solid-sub-growth-should-follow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jun 2007 18:38:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Casey</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[WiMax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thechannelcheckers.com/2007/06/clearwire-expansion-plans-running-progressing-quickly-solid-sub-growth-should-follow/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We have recently conducted a survey to determine into which geographies Clearwire service is expanding.  We realize that Clearwire shows expansion cities on their website but these only include Syracuse, NY; Nashville, TN and Dayton, OH now.
Our survey covered over 40 cities and we asked the following questions:
Do you offer Clearwire Service in my [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have recently conducted a survey to determine into which geographies Clearwire service is expanding.  We realize that Clearwire shows expansion cities on their<a href="http://www.clearwire.com/store/service_areas.php"> website </a>but these only include Syracuse, NY; Nashville, TN and Dayton, OH now.</p>
<p>Our survey covered over 40 cities and we asked the following questions:</p>
<p>Do you offer Clearwire Service in my area?</p>
<p>If no, when will you?</p>
<p>Do I need special equipment to receive Clearwire service?</p>
<p>The survey results were interesting to us as respondents from Syracuse told us Clearwire service is available there now. We also got responses that service was available in Cleveland, OH (not projected on Clearwire site) and that service would soon be available in Virginia Beach, VA (also not projected on Clearwire site).  Houston residents can likely expect Clearwire service soon as we were told that service is up and running in Corpus Christi, TX (another city only shown as projected on the Clearwire site) and that Houston would have service likely in early fall 2007.  We note that Houston is not shown as a projected city by Clearwire.</p>
<p>Why would Clearwire run ahead of roll-out plans?  We believe that Clearwire is offering service early in cities to gain subscriber momentum, to test our network operations and to make a positive impression on financial backers as the company continues to expand and spend large sums of money on capital expenditures.  The advance deployments versus publicly communicated plans could also be intended to help beat subscriber growth target expectations of shareholders and analysts.</p>
<p>Consumers will need customer premise equipment from Clearwire.  The communication on this topic from Clearwire representatives is mixed.  We believe that they should answer &#8220;yes&#8221; to consumers asking about the need for special equipment since the service cannot work without Clearwire specific hardware.  Only 25 our of 44 Clearwire customer service representatives we spoke with told us we needed a modem from Clearwire which we could buy or rent. The other 19 told use we did not need any new equipment.  This is not a major problem but could cause some poor customer experiences for new users in new markets.</p>
<p>Our view from the survey is that Clearwire service is being expanded faster than is publicly discussed by the company and that this expansion is likely to produce strong subscriber growth metrics when Clearwire reports 2Q and 3Q results.</p>
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